UFC Vegas 109 happens this weekend (Sat., Aug. 9, 2025) inside UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, for the second week in a row. The ESPN+-streamed main event has Middleweights in the main event with Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez.
In the co-main event we’ve got Steve Erceg vs. Ode’ Osbourne. Erceg, a former title challenger, was initially scheduled to fight Alex Perez. However, Perez backed out due to injury (after an already lengthy spell on the sidelines). Erceg was then booked to fight Hyun Sung Park. Park was then bumped into the main event against Tatsuro Taira last weekend… and we all saw how that went.
Rounding out the main card is Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill, Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez, Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto and Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan.
The “Prelims” undercard is headlined by Julius Walker vs. Raffael Cerqueira. The “Prelims” also include Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama and Uros Medic vs. Gilbert Urbina.
Let’s checkout the money lines on “Dolidze vs. Hernandez” and all the other bouts on the card …
UFC Vegas 109 Main Card Money Line Odds
Roman Dolidze looks for his fourth win in a row at UFC Vegas 109. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Roman Dolidze (+275) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-345)
I just don’t excited for Roman Dolidze fights. He’s on a three fight winning streak, but those wins were against Marvin Vettori, Kevin Holland and Anthony Smith. Vettori was coming off a long injury lay-off and has declined significantly as a fighter. The Holland fight ended due to injury. And the Smith fight was a glorified sparring session.
At 37, and with his most impressive win being a finish over Jack Hermansson in 2022 (see it here), I’m not sold on Dolidze as a title contender at Middleweight.
The 31 year-old Hernandez, on the other hand, could make waves at the very top of this division. He’s on a seven fight winning streak. Most recently, in February, he dominated, albeit unspectacularly, Brendan Allen for a decision. Before that he gave Michel Perreira one of the worst beatings I’ve ever seen in the Octagon.
Dolidze is a pretty standard wrestle-boxer with good size and athleticism and better than average grappling. Hernandez is a cardio-machine with good striking and very good grappling, which he uses to deliver punishing ground and pound.
I think Dolidze’s size and strength may hinder Hernandez’s attempts to ragdoll him around and hold him down long enough to pound him into oblivion. Even so, I think Hernandez is skilled and dogged enough to score enough of his takedowns and top positions to win this fight. Doldize has never been stopped and I’ll be very surprised if he gets totally stuck under Hernandez to the point where this ends in a sub or a TKO.
I think we are going to see something similar to Hernandez vs. Allen, only with Dolidze doing better on the feet, especially with his kicks (unless Hernandez gets a lot of success taking him down off those).
I hate this as a main event, though. I don’t think it’s going to be particularly exciting, with Hernandez stuffing Doldize into the corner of the fence and not being able to do much with Dolidze’s hand on his wrist.
The round total for this one is 3.5 with the over at -125 and the under at -105. I think this is going to a decision, so the over is appealing.
The point spread has Hernandez -5.5 at -195 and Dolidze +5.5 at +140. I’m not feeling either of those. I think Hernandez wins by decision, but there could be room for Dolidze to take a round there, especially if Hernandez takes the first round off to study Doldize’s movements.
Hernandez by decision is +185. That’s probably the best value bet I can make on this fight. Hernandez does get a lot of finishes, but I just think what Dolidze lacks in interesting skills he makes up for in toughness and strength and that this will keep him safe throughout the fight.
Hernandez by submission is +200 and by KO/TKO is +350. If you think Dolidze gets the decision win you can get that at a whopping +1100. He’s also +500 to win by strikes and +1200 to win by submission (zero chance of that happening, I reckon).
Fight to go the distance is +150, which I think is a good conservative play. I really don’t see Dolidze winning this, though. For that reason I’ll go with Hernandez to get the decision as my best bet.
Best bet: Anthony Hernandez by decision (+185)
Steve Erceg will try to get off the Schneid at UFC Vegas 109. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne
He was rushed into a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja (which he could have won if he didn’t pivot from successful boxing to unsuccessful wrestling midway through the fight). And he’s lost two fights since then, getting blitzed by Kai Kara-France (see it here) and then overwhelmed by Brandon Moreno.
Thankfully, for him, the difficulty has been lowered down a few levels for this fight with late replacement Osbourne.
Osbourne lit up Luis Gurule in April for a Performance of the Night bonus. But who is Luis Gurule? Answers on a postcard. Before that he lost three in a row, to Ronaldo Rodriguez, Jafel Filho and Asu Almabayev.
I think this being a three round fight is good for Erceg and it might prevent him from over thinking things. He earned his title shot by seemingly fighting in a flow state, but since then he’s looked a little more rigid. If he starts aggressively, as he should in a three round fight, I think he might be able to fight himself back into that flow state.
If he does that, I think his combinations and timing could ruin Osbourne. Erceg is better at both landing and defending sig. strikes, by a decent margin, than Osbourne. Osbourne has a bit more reach on him, but I don’t think that is going to pose a problem for Erceg.
I think Erceg is going to hurt Osbourne in this fight and, when he smells blood, really turn it on.
Because this fight was put together so late, I only have the moneyline right now. If the round total was 2.5, I’d take the under. As it is, I’ll just ride with the big favorite.
Best bet: Steve Erceg moneyline (-575)
We’ll see if Angela Hill is still drinking from the Fountain of Youth at UFC Vegas 109. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Iasmin Lucindo (-198) vs. Angela Hill (+164)
Lucindo’s four fight winning streak was smashed by Amanda Lemos in March with the former title challenger eager to show the upstart that “there are levels” to this game. Lemos dominated her on the ground and held her to just four sig. strikes on the feet. That loss made Lucindo’s wins over the aging Marina Rodriguez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz seem less impressive.
Lucindo has another older opponent this time, with the 40 year-old Hill. However, Hill hasn’t been showing her age lately. She took a split decision over Ketlen Souza in February, where she looked fast and sharp. Before that she lost a decision to Tabatha Ricci, though that fight was closer than the scorecards suggested (with Hill landing 112 sig. strikes to Ricci’s 101).
Lucindo doesn’t need to worry about Hill holding her down on the ground. She’s going to get to trade with HIll on the feet and go for her takedowns (she lands 2.15 per 15 minutes) instead. Lucindo might try and win this on the mat. Hill has seen this all before, though. She’s made a career out of staying on her feet and drawing opponents into long striking battles that go down to the wire.
I think Hill, and her 75 percent takedown defense, can stifle Lucindo and force her to box for 15 minutes. In that scenario, I like Hill’s experience, cardio and mentality to win out over Lucindo (who can get frustrated when things aren’t going all her way).
Hill is one of my favorite underdogs on the card, despite her age (she’s the Jared Cannonier of the women’s division – minus the bad tweets).
Best bet: Angela Hill moneyline (+164)
Which C-Rod will show up at UFC Vegas 109? Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Andre Fili (+190) vs. Christian Rodriguez (-230)
Rodriguez is a funny fighter. He looked so good against top prospects Raul Rosas Jr. and Austin Bashi, schooling those kids with a complete MMA lesson. But then he was second best against Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa. The Costa fight was very fun, but Rodriguez started slowly and that cost him.
Fili also lost to Costa in his last fight. His was far less competitive, though. He ran into a guillotine from Costa and was finished inside the first round. Before that he took a split decision over the almost retired Cub Swanson.
This feels like the kind of fight Rodriguez loses. He’s seven years younger than Fili, but he’s giving up a lot of size and reach to the veteran. These gritty veterans, who have seen it all, seem to have a bit of a mental edge on Rodriguez, too, who struggles to show up for every moment of every fight.
I think this fight is going to happen mostly on the feet. I don’t think either of these guys will be too interested in going to the ground, despite both of them being tricky and accomplished grapplers. I think they will both view striking as their best path to victory in the fight. They both have great takedown defenses, too.
Rodriguez is likely going to land his foot sweep a bunch on the lanky Fili, though. Even so, I don’t think he will follow that up with top position. I think he might use it just to break Fili’s rhythm.
If this is going to be a kickboxing fight, I think the Roufusport guy is going to win. I can’t trust Rodriguez enough to bet on him, though, due to his inconsistency.
Because of that, I’m playing the over – expecting this fight to go to a close decision.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-230)
Jean Matsumoto is looking to rebound at UFC Vegas 109. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Miles John (+250) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-310)
Matsumoto got a big test in his last fight. He came in on short(ish) notice to fight Rob Font (Dominick Cruz). Font goes Super Saiyan when UFC gives him a young prospect, though. He handed Matsumoto the first loss of his career, dropping the Brazilian to 16-1. That was a heck of a fight, though. I scored it for Matsumoto and think he came out as a ‘winner’ despite taking his first loss.
Johns is coming off a loss to the high flying Felipe Lima. His wins prior to that were against Douglas Silva de Andrade and Cody Gibson.
Johns was too slow for Lima. I think he’ll be too slow for Matsumoto. The difference between Lima and Matsumoto is that Matsumoto hits like a Mack truck. I think he catches Johns and finishes him (Johns has only been finished once before – by Mario Bautista).
Matsumoto is not the most accurate striker (41 percent on sig. strikes) and he will take one to land one, but he doesn’t have just his striking to rely on. He can also do a good Caio Borralho impression with smothering position-over-submission wrestling/BJJ.
I just don’t see a path to victory for Johns.
The round total is 2.5 and the under is +230 (the over is -315). I’m tempted by the under, but I think I’ll stick with the moneyline on Matsumoto here – in case he decides to be more Borralho than buzz saw in this fight.
Best bet: Jean Matsumoto moneyline (-310)
Hopefully Christian Leroy Duncan has a more exciting fight at UFC Vegas 109. Jeff Botari/Zuffa LLC
Eryk Anders (+425) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (-575)
There are a lot of match-ups like this one the UFC Vegas 109 card, with big favorites. And, for most of them, I’m not sure the favorite deserves such short odds. However, for the most part, I’m still not interested in taking the underdog. That’s the case here, where I think this is a closer fight than Vegas suggests, but that the favorite is still likely to win.
Duncan suffered through a terrible fight with Andrey Pulyaev last time out, taking a somewhat comfortable decision in a gruelling clinch fest. With how Pulyaev looked last week, finishing Nick Klein once he got his striking going, you have to wonder if he was fighting Duncan with some sort of injury.
Before that win Duncan was outpaced by Gregory Rodrigues for a unanimous decision loss, his first since his decision loss to Armen Petrosyan.
Anders beat up on Chris Weidman in his last fight, winning with a second round TKO (see it here). Before that he beat Jamie Pickett.
Anders’ age is working against him in this one. He’s 38 and his style is one that perishes with age. He’s eight years older than Duncan and also giving up four inches of reach.
I’m expecting Duncan to pepper away with strikes on Anders and take an easy decision. Duncan has a very good 59 percent accuracy with sig. strikes. Anders has just 48 percent, which is not terrible, but that plus the reach and age disadvantages could be significant.
Anders also absorbs more sig. strikes than he lands (4.05 vs. 3.54). And, as I say every week, that is a red flag for me. Duncan has a surplus in those departments (4.75 landed vs. 3.01 absorbed).
Anders is very hard to stop. He’s never been knocked out in UFC, despite fighting names like Marc Andre-Barriault and Khalil Rountree Jr. He lost by retirement to Thiago Santos, but was tough enough to make it to his stool after eating a ton of punishment.
I just don’t see Duncan going the extra mile to finish Anders, if he’s easily beating him to the punch and cruising to a decision. The round total is giving respect to Anders’ toughness, being set at 2.5 with -188 on the over. The under is +145, and I’m going to side with Anders’ toughness and Duncan’s seeming lack of a killer instinct in this fight.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-188)
UFC Vegas 109 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Raffael Cerqueira looks for his first UFC win at UFC Vegas 109. Chris Under/Zuffa LLC
Julius Walker (-675) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (+490)
I don’t know why Cerqueira is still on the roster. He had three Contender Series fights fall through and was then fed to Ibo Aslan for a UFC debut in the Middle East. He was TKO’d in the first round there. Then, in February, he was finished in the first round by Modestas Bukauskas.
Like Cerqueira, Walker debuted in the UFC without being on Contender Series or TUF. He lost a split decision to Alonzo Menifield in his debut, in February. In that fight Walker went 1-9 on takedowns and was forced to brawl with Menifield.
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He’ll probably try and take Cerqueira down. I don’t know if he can do it or not. We’ve not seen anyone bother to try and take down Cerquiera in UFC. If we’re left with a brawl, Cerqueira might have an opponent here he can stand and bang with and not be quickly stopped by.
I don’t trust Walker as such a big favorite in this match-up. Cerqueira has looked bad, but those past two opponents are levels above where Walker is right now. This fight has a 1.5 round total and I think that’s giving Walker way too much credit. Give me the over.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+175)
Can Toshiomi Kazama pull off another big upset at UFC Vegas 109. Al Powers/Zuffa LLC
Elijah Smith (-700) vs. Toshiomi Kazema (+500)
Smith outwrestled crafty veteran Vince Morales for a decision win in his proper UFC debut. Smith is now 8-1 and a massive favorite in this fight.
Kazama came through Road to UFC and has been knocked out in the first round twice in his UFC career, once by Rinya Nakamura and once by Garrett Armfield. In his last fight, around a year ago, he submitted Charalampos Girgoriou with a triangle choke (after getting beat up) and earned a Performance of the Night award (see it here).
Smith doesn’t seem to have the power in his hands that Kazama seems allergic to. However, his wrestling is likely too high level for Kazama to put up with. I think we’re going to see Smith get those takedowns and ride out a pretty comfortable decision victory. The over is set at 1.5 rounds because of Kazama’s history, but I think Vegas are off with that.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+100)
Priscila Cachoeira comes into UFC Vegas 109 off a big KO win. Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Joselyne Edwards (-340) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+270)
I know Cachoeira scored an epic first round KO in her last fight (see it here), but I’m still shocked she continues to get licensed to fight, let alone get booked in UFC. She’s had some awful beatings in her career, including one to Valentina Shevchenko that essentially ended the refereeing career of Mario Yamasaki. She’s 5-6 in UFC and now 36, but I guess someone in the promotion likes her (or maybe they hate her and want to see her beat up again).
Edwards took Chelsea Chandler apart in her last fight, finishing her in the first round. That’s the best she’s ever looked. However, Chandler may be the worst fighter on the roster. Before that Edwards submitted Tamires Vidal, in a fight she missed weight for.
Edwards is hitting her stride and in her prime, at 29 years-old. Cachoeira is very much on the decline and I think Edwards’ striking will get her the win here. She’ll have five inches of reach on Cachoeira. That reach, plus Cachoeira’s below par 43 percent defence on sig. strikes, means Cachoeira is going to eat a ton of jabs.
The round total on this is 2.5. I think Edwards, in this current form, is capable of stopping Cachoeira on Saturday.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+165)
Uros Medic comes into UFC Vegas 109 off the back of a big KO loss. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Uros Medic (-440) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+330)
After being starched by Punahele Soriano in 31 seconds (see it here) on a main card, Medic has been buried on the undercard at UFC Vegas 109. That loss came after Medic’s brutal first round uppercut stoppage over Tim Means (see it here). Medic is now 10-3 as a pro, but his losses are all to quality opponents. In addition to Soriano (who looks great at this weight class), his other losses are to Myktybek Orolbai and Jalin Turner.
Urbina has been out for over a year. His last Octagon appearance saw him KO’d by Charles Radtke (see it here). Before that he beat Orion Cosce with a body kick. Urbina’s other two career losses were to very tough opponents; Bryan Battle and Sean Brady (who he went to a decision with in LFA). Not including fights on TUF Urbina has only fought three times since 2019.
Medic is a far cleaner striker than Radtke is. If Radtke was able to hurt Urbina, then I’m sure Medic can do the same. Urbina has a reach advantage over Medic, but that didn’t help him against Radtke.
At this time of writing, I’ve only got moneyline odds available for this fight. If I had the option, I would take the under, expecting the round total to be set at 1.5.
Best bet: Uros Medic moneyline (-425)
Gabriella Fernandes is the big favorite, this time, at UFC Vegas 109. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Gabriella Fernandes (-440) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+340)
Fernandes got one of the upsets of the year in 2024, rocking and then submitting Wang Cong at UFC Macau (see it here). That was her second UFC win. The first was a split decision over Carli Judice, which looks pretty good in retrospect. Her two UFC losses are to Tereza Bleda and the excellent Jasmine Jasudavicius (who she went to a decision with).
Stoliarenko hasn’t fought since February, 2024, when she was TKO’d by Luana Carolina. She’s 2-6 in UFC with both wins coming via nasty armbar (over the retired Molly McCann and the released Jessica-Rose Clark).
The round total is interesting in this fight. It’s 2.5, but right now you can get the under at -175 and the over at +135. On women’s fights you usually see very short odds on the over (since they so often go the distance). The reason for these lines is the shoddy durability of Stoliarenko.
I think this is a good opportunity to take the over. I fully expect Fernandes to win, but she’s only got one finish in UFC. Fernandes is most dangerous through grappling and that’s an area where Stoliarenko has decent understanding. So I think Stoliarenko might be able to fight off the submission attempts and hear the final bell (before then losing a decision).
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+135)
Cody Brundage is a late late addition to the UFC Vegas 109 card. Cooper Neil/Zuffa LLC
Cody Brundage (-154) vs. Eric McConico (+120)
Brundage’s record stands at a quirky 11-6-1 1 NC after his fight with Mansur Abdul-Malik was retroactively scored a draw (full details here). The fight was initially called a technical decision for Abdul-Malik after a clash of heads ended the fight in the third round. Before that Brundage blew away Julian Marquez with a first round TKO (see that here).
McConico debuted in February after being brought in on very short notice to fight Nursulton Ruziboev. McConico, a 35 year-old with 11 fights, gave it a good go, but was eventually stopped with a right hook in the second round.
This is a Light Heavyweight bout. That’s a first for Brundage in UFC, not counting his failed first Contender Series audition back in 2020. He’s fought at Middleweight since then. McConico fought Ruziboev at Middleweight, but he had been fighting as a Light Heavyweight in LFA before that.
Brundage is giving up five inches of reach to McConico, but I’m still siding with him here. He’s the more experienced UFC fighter and his power striking, and sprinkling of wrestling, should be good enough to get past McConico.
Best bet: Cody Brundage moneyline (-154)
Will Touchy Fili get the tapout at UFC Vegas 109? Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 109 card …
Two-bet parlay: Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto Under 2.5 rounds and Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoiera Under 2.5 rounds (+774)
Jean Matsumoto is much better than Miles Johns and he is a threat to finishes either on the feet or on the ground. He’s young and I’m expecting him to improve after his war with Rob Font. Joselyne Edwards has looked good lately and I don’t think Priscila Cachoeira will be able to hang with her for long.
Andre Fili to win by submission (+2500)
This would be a repeat of what happened the last time Christian Rodriguez met a veteran with this kind of body frame (Julian Erosa got him with a guillotine). Rodriguez should be too smart to put himself in a bad position on the ground against Fili. But, since Rodriguez dips up and down with his form, why not fade him here?
Two-bet Parlay: Raffael Cerquiera and Toshiomi Kazama (+3320)
This parlay is nuts, I know. But hear me out. Raffael Cerquiera has a heck of a highlight reel out of Brazil. Maybe Octagon jitters and a tough schedule have led to him being 0-2 in UFC more than anything. Maybe he’ll let it all hang out, while fighting for his UFC contract, against Julius Walker (who hasn’t shown us much of anything in his career). Like Cerqueira, Toshiomi Kazama has had a baptism of fire in UFC. He’s fighting for his UFC life, too, maybe he stuns Elijah Smith (who is just 1-0 in UFC) with a big punch or another sub off his back.
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
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MIDDLEWEIGHT MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Aug. 9, 2025, with UFC Vegas 109. That’s where No. 8-ranked Middleweight contender, Roman Dolidze, clashes with No. 10-seeded Anthony Hernandez in a high-stakes main event showdown scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Vegas 109’s co-main event, former Flyweight title challenger, Steve Erceg, takes on Ode Osbourne, with both fighters looking to climb the 125-pound rankings.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 109 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 109 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.
