Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight contenders Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy will collide this weekend (Sat., Sept. 6, 2025) at UFC Paris inside Accor Arena in Paris, France.
Hype and momentum can do funny things to public perception. It wasn’t that long ago that Benoit Saint Denis was favored over Dustin Poirier and then actually looked the part for about seven minutes, beating up “The Diamond” on the canvas before eating a check hook from hell. Since then, “BSD” hasn’t looked quite so terrifying, and his last showing against the unheralded Kyle Prepolec didn’t inspire confidence even if he ultimately got the victory. Now, Saint Denis is a considerable underdog opposite Ruffy, the new prospect in town. Ruffy hasn’t beaten anyone particularly great yet, but he’s looked damn good in his trio of UFC victories, showing the kind of power and slickness that doesn’t come around often.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 08: Mauricio Ruffy of Brazil celebrates after defeating King Green of the United States by knockout in the first round during UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena on March 08, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images) Getty Images
Saint Denis vs. Ruffy Betting Odds
- Benoit Saint Denis victory: +150
- Benoit Saint Denis via TKO/KO/DQ: +650
- Benoit Saint Denis via submission: +550
- Benoit Saint Denis via decision: +500
- Mauricio Ruffy victory: -180
- Mauricio Ruffy via TKO/KO/DQ: +100
- Mauricio Ruffy via submission: +1100
- Mauricio Ruffy via decision: +450
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
MONTREAL, QUEBEC – MAY 10: Benoît Saint Denis of France (L) fights Kyle Prepolec of Canada in a lightweight fight during UFC 315 at Bell Centre on May 10, 2025 in Montreal, Quebec. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) Getty Images
Saint Denis is a mauler. There’s not anything massively complex about his skills — he hasn’t actually been training MMA that long compared to most professionals — but Saint Denis puts it all together beautifully. He pressures very well, as all of his attacks are designed to close distance and feed into one another.
The bright side of this match up is that Saint Denis’ usual game plan applies. He wants to pressure the fancy kickboxer, offset his timing before it can be established, and get the wrestling going. The flip side is that Ruffy is a very nasty, fast, and powerful striker, so there’s relatively little margin for error. Saint Denis will not survive getting cracked like he did versus Prepolec!
Pressuring without getting hit is a tall task, but the obvious answer is at least a bit of head movement. Saint Denis charges forward without taking his head off the center line often, and that will be a problem against Ruffy’s intercepting counters. If the French talent can make a single adjustment, that’s the one! Otherwise, a heavier focus on feints and increased urgency to change levels could increase his odds of success further.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 08: Mauricio Ruffy of Brazil (L) fights King Green of the United States during UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena on March 08, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images) Getty Images
Ruffy is very clearly an immense natural talent. Speed, power, and incredible reaction time are his great assets. The Fighting Nerds have done well so far to hone those gifts into a promising prospect, but this bout will show if he can take the next step to become a contender.
Ruffy has drawn comparisons to a young Conor McGregor during his rise, so he can go ahead and take some cues from McGregor vs. Chad Mendes. In that bout, the “Notorious” broke down the wrestler with pressure and stabbing kicks up the middle. Ruffy should similarly not look to back away from exchanges — he doesn’t have to just counter! — and instead look to strand Saint Denis at distance with his attacks.
There’s a reasonable chance Ruffy ends up on his back here at some point, and the Brazilian has to be ready to whether the storm. As we saw versus Poirier, Saint Denis is not afraid to empty the gas tank to potentially his own detriment. If Ruffy is grounded, the focus has to be on staying composed and surviving, because the “BSD” assault will not last forever.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 08: Mauricio Ruffy of Brazil celebrates after defeating King Green of the United States by knockout in the first round during UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena on March 08, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images) Getty Images
Saint Denis vs. Ruffy Prediction
Likely, one of these two men will make the other look very bad. Saint Denis either runs over Ruffy on the canvas or Ruffy proves himself a level above in the stand up. A competitive fight is always possible, but a blowout in one direction or the other feels more likely.
Ultimately, I’ll reach back to Ruffy’s Contenders Series win over Raimond Magomedaliev as evidence that Ruffy can shuck off takedowns and survive bad positions on the canvas. Thus far, The Fighting Nerds have proven quite capable of preparing their strikers for wrestlers as well, which adds some confidence to the idea that Ruffy can keep upright and deliver something nasty.
Prediction: Ruffy via knockout
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MIDDLEWEIGHT MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Accor Arena in Paris, France, on Sat., Sept. 6, 2025, with a must-watch title eliminator. In the main event, top-ranked contender Nassourdine Imavov faces unbeaten rising star, Caio Borralho, in a high-stakes clash scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Paris’ co-headliner, all-action Lightweight standouts Benoit Saint Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy square off, both aiming to climb closer to the 155-pound title picture. All that and SO MUCH MORE — don’t miss a single second of face-punching action.
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