Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight strikers Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez will square off this weekend (Sat., July 19, 2025) at UFC 318 inside Smooth King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Is Kevin Holland finally locked in? That’s always the question with “Trailblazer,” one of the few fighters UFC is willing to let jump weight classes and fight five times per year. Sometimes, that freedom backfires in the form of taking some combination of a hard match up at the wrong weight class on short-notice or simple burnout, but Holland’s last two showings down at 170-pounds have been top-notch work.
This is a strange step back for Holland. “D-Rod” is a definite gamer and had a nice run around 2022, but he’s definitely lost a bit of his athleticism in recent years. Though the 38-year-old has won two in a row since his losing streak, he hasn’t been fighting the same class of opposition.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Holland Vs. Rodriguez Betting Odds
- Kevin Holland victory: -455
- Kevin Holland via TKO/KO/DQ: +175
- Kevin Holland via submission: +240
- Kevin Holland via decision: +240
- Daniel Rodriguez victory: +350
- Daniel Rodriguez via TKO/KO/DQ: +900
- Daniel Rodriguez via submission: +2500
- Daniel Rodriguez via decision: +800
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Photo by Michelle Farsi/Zuffa LLC
How Holland Wins
Holland is a dangerous combination of range and power. His punches crack like a whip and floor opponents often, but he’s dangerous in the clinch too. In addition, his defensive wrestling and offensive submissions have come a long way, particularly at Welterweight.
This is a fairly straightforward match up for Holland. He doesn’t really have to worry about Rodriguez taking him down! As the faster and longer man, Holland also has a built-in advantage in avoiding Rodriguez’s counter punches, which are likely the best aspect of his overall game.
The only key here is adapting to Rodriguez’s Southpaw stance. Holland should aim to win the hand fight with his left, which will allow him to feed right hands down the middle. Holland should also be firing round kicks into the open side, trying to playing the double threat of right hand and right high kick.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
How Rodriguez Wins
Rodriguez is plenty comfortable in a firefight. With a background in boxing and nine wins via knockout to his credit, Rodriguez does his best work on the back foot, timing shots as his opponents come to him. Fortunately, he’s also skilled while moving forward and working in the pocket.
That’s definitely the strategy here, as Rodriguez cannot end up stranded at range versus Holland, lest he eat another head kick like in the Ian Garry fight. I’m not advocating sloppiness, but if there were ever a time for Rodriguez to really bite down on his mouthpiece and force the action, this is the match up.
The odds are against Rodriguez here. Holland is faster, more powerful, and insanely durable. Even despite those issues, Rodriguez at least gives himself a chance at cracking the chin by pushing the action and trying to close distance. Pressure, volume, and combination punching are the only answers here, the best odds at hurting Holland and pulling momentum into his corner.
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Holland Vs. Rodriguez Prediction
If the betting odds and strategic sections didn’t make it obvious, Rodriguez back is to the wall here. Even at his peak, this would be a really challenging match up for him. Unfortunately for “D-Rod,” he’s lost a step whereas Holland has arguably put on two of his best performances yet and is riding a solid wave of momentum.
Whether Rodriguez hangs back or tries to force the issue, Holland’s right hand is going to find the mark sooner than later, and he’s a dynamic finisher.
Prediction: Holland via knockout
