UFC Vegas 106 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., May 17, 2025) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, former UFC Welterweight title challenger, Gilbert Burns,takes on the surging (and undefeated), Michael Morales.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in “Sin City” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Vegas 106 betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Vegas 106 odds here).
Annnd I’m finally back on roll, thanks to last weekend’s lock hitting with Valentina Shevchenko and Manon Fiorot going five rounds.
We’re 6-3 so far, let’s keep keeping on below …
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC Vegas 106’s co-main event throws former 205-pound veteran, Paul Craig, into the cage with hot prospect, Rodolfo Bellato, for what is poised to be a banger of a Light Heavyweight scrap … for as long as it lasts.
The line for this fight not hitting the scorecards is -575. And that’s what I’m calling — Bellato via KO/TKO/DQ is sitting pretty at -185, which will serve as our latest “Weekend Lock.”
Here’s why:
Craig has only visited the judges twice — in a snooze-fest against Bo Nickal in his most recent outing and against Volkan Oezdemir, who’s got knockout power but doesn’t necessarily chase quick finishes like Bellato (that fight was also awful).
In Craig’s nine losses, five were knockouts. That’s what happens when he runs into guys like Bellato.
Indeed, Bellato is a finisher, with a 90 percent stoppage rate, including seven knockouts (four in round one). The guy loves a slobberknocker — look no further than his Octagon debut where he appeared cooked, but clawed back to secure a dub (watch highlights).
This fight isn’t rocket science. Craig, 37, on a three-fight slide, and crawling back to Light Heavyweight after bombing at Middleweight. He is still undoubtedly extremely dangerous on the ground, and if Bellato is dumb enough to go down there with “Bearjew,” then there is a chance that the heavy-handed Brazilian will get tapped.
For what it’s worth, a Twitter/X user says this fight will last at least 1.5 rounds:
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
Pick: Over 1½ Rounds, +105
Pair fought > 7½ minutes in 13 of all 23 combined career UFC events, including all of Bellato’s appearances. Craig has never tapped before round three and returning to 205 lbs. helps his chin.
UFC Vegas 106 Stats Comp: pic.twitter.com/b54n87kNHs
— MMA RAX (@MMA_RAX) May 15, 2025
Rodolfo Bellato To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: -185
Rodolfo Bellato To Win By Submission: +500
Rodolfo Bellato To Win By Decision: +500
Paul Craig To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +1400
Paul Craig To Win By Submission: +800
Paul Craig To Win By Decision: +1400
Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Vegas 106 pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.
LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 106 On ESPN+
WELTERWEIGHT CROSSROADS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to is intimate APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., May 17, 2025, with UFC Vegas 106. Former 170-pound title challenger, Gilbert Burns, collides with undefeated up-and-coming phenom, Michael Morales, in a blistering main event scheduled for five rounds. In UFC Vegas 106’s co-main event, battle-hardened Paul Craig locks horns with surging Light Heavyweight, Rodolfo Bellato, setting the stage for an explosive showdown in the 205-pound division.
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 106 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance (also streaming on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 106 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.
