UFC Nashville is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., July 12, 2025) inside Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. In the main event, former UFC Heavyweight title challenger, Derrick Lewis, takes on surging Brazilian knockout artist, Tallison Teixeira.
We have a fight week series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in “Music City” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Nashville betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Nashville odds here).
Last week’s recap: Our three-week win streak came to an end as Joshua Vanstunned everyone by defeatingBrandon Royval in the best “Fight of the Year” thus far. So close, but a beat nonetheless.
Let’s keep on, keeping on below:
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Kicking off UFC Nashville’s main card for whatever reason is Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkosin a Light Heavyweight matchup.
Actually, I do know why this low-level fight is kicking off the main card — it’s going to end in a brutal knockout! So, without dragging this out any longer than necessary, this weekend’s lock is Tafa to Win by KO/TKO/DQ, which currently sits at -125.
Here’s why:
Full disclosure: Betting on Tafa isn’t exactly the sexiest move; however, this matchup is a gift-wrapped opportunity. At 28, Tafa is dropping to Light Heavyweight after grinding through eight fights as an undersized Heavyweight … and he looks shredded. This move should unlock a faster, more explosive version of Tafa, with that same sledgehammer power that’s left jaws on the floor.
Tafa’s UFC run hasn’t been flawless, but his losses came against hulking Heavyweight contenders who dwarfed him. Now, at 205 pounds, he’s facing a tailor-made opponent.
Enter Tokkos, whose only shot at winning is to turn this into a grappling match. Problem is, Tokkos hasn’t shown much wrestling prowess in UFC. And his striking defense? It is suspect at best. He’s been rocked before, most notably in a brutal knockout loss to Mingyang Zhang three years ago.
In short, if Tokkos tries to trade punches, he’s getting slept.
Sure, Tokkos went the distance against high-level kickboxer Navajo Stirling, but Stirling played it safe and barely attempted much offense. Tokkos did land three takedowns in that fight, so if he shoots on Tafa, things could get spicy.
But, let’s be real: Tokkos’ chin is a ticking time bomb … and Tafa’s fists are the detonator. At the end of the day, Tafa is going to find that chin in Nashville.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter is agreeing with us:
Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos
Pick: Tafa to Win, -175
New mythical fighter unlocked: Six Pack Tafa? A much-needed move down to light heavyweight gets rewarded with a debut against an older opponent that owns chin concerns and far worse striking.
UFC Nashville Stats Comp: pic.twitter.com/tf2h6fME0r
— MMA RAX (@MMA_RAX) July 9, 2025
- Junior Tafa To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: -120
- Junior Tafa To Win By Submission: +2800
- Junior Tafa To Win By Decision: +800
- Draw: +5000
- Tuco Tokkos To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +350
- Tuco Tokkos To Win By Submission: +500
- Tuco Tokkos To Win By Decision: +900
Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Baku pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.
LIVE! Stream UFC Nashville On ESPN+
HEAVY LEATHER! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) crashes Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, on Sat., July 12, 2025, with UFC Nashville. Record-setting knockout artist, Derrick Lewis, collides with undefeated up-and-comer, Tallison Teixeira, in a blistering main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Nashville’s co-main event, former welterweight title challenger, Stephen Thompson, locks horns with once-beaten Brazilian bruiser, Gabriel Bonfim, with a spot in the welterweight Top 15 up for grabs.
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Nashville fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 9 p.m. ET (also on ESPN/ESPN+).
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Nashville: “Lewis vs. Teixeira” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
