UFC Atlanta is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., June 14, 2025) inside State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. In the main event, former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usmanfinally returns to action after a lengthy layoff against surging contender, Joaquin Buckley.
We have a fight week series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in “A-Town” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Atlanta betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Atlanta odds here).
Last week’s recap: We nailed UFC 316’s Weekend Lock as UFC rookie Joo Sang Yoo smoked Jeka Saragih in 28 seconds with an absolutely filthy one-punch counter hook (watch highlights).
Let’s keep on keeping on below:
Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC
Tucked away on the UFC Atlanta “Prelims” is a clash between two UFC veterans and The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winners: Michael Chiesa and Court McGee.
Back on a winning streak, Chiesa enters as a -345 betting favorite against “The Crusher,” who recently halted a three-fight losing skid with a submission victory (watch highlights)
“Maverick” is going to win this fight, but that’s not my lock. I’m going with Chiesa vs. McGee To Go The Distance, which is currently at -150.
Here’s why:
Unless a fighter possesses the knockout power of Matt Brown, Jeremiah Wells, or Santiago Ponzinibbio, they’re not knocking McGee out. Unfortunately for Chiesa, his striking lacks that explosive force.
Chiesa’s elite ground game shines when he’s in top position, but McGee’s durability is unmatched — he’s never been submitted in 35 professional fights, including a 2021 bout against submission specialist, Sean Brady.
On the flip side, McGee’s finishing ability is limited. Before his recent submission of Tim Means in his home state of Utah last year, “The Crusher” was a decision machine, with his last UFC stoppage coming in 2010.
Oh, here’s a stat: across their combined 43 UFC fights, neither Chiesa nor McGee has scored a knockout.
Expect this Welterweight bout to go the full three rounds. It might not be a barnburner, but here’s hoping for some gritty action!
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter user also sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds.
Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee
Pick: Over 2½ Rounds, -175
Chiesa has zero MMA career KO wins and no one has ever submitted McGee. “The Crusher” also has no wins in the UFC via KO and had not won by submission since 2010 prior to his last appearance.
UFC Atlanta Stats Comp: pic.twitter.com/qUapAzL7fz
— MMA RAX (@MMA_RAX) June 10, 2025
Court McGee has never been controlled for more than 3 minutes in a single fight, in his 23 career ufc fights. He has had more control time than his opponent in 21 of the 23 fights also, and has never been submitted.
Michael Chiesa has never won a UFC decision where he did not… pic.twitter.com/1UuXtyZ5I2
— MMA Prediction Guru (@PredictionMma) June 10, 2025
- Michael Chiesa To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +1100
- Michael Chiesa To Win By Submission: +200
- Michael Chiesa To Win By Decision: +110
- Draw: +5000
- Court McGee To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +1400
- Court McGee To Win By Submission: +1200
- Court McGee To Win By Decision: +500
Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Atlanta pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.
LIVE! Stream UFC Atlanta On ESPN+
WELTERWEIGHT CROSSROADS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) crashes State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on Sat., June 14, 2025, with UFC Atlanta. Former 170-pound champion, Kamaru Usman, collides with fast-rising knockout artist, Joaquin Buckley, in a blistering main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Atlanta’s co-main event, former strawweight titleholder, Rose Namajunas, locks horns with grizzled 125-pound veteran, Miranda Maverick, setting the stage for an explosive showdown in the women’s flyweight division.
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Atlanta fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Atlanta news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.
