UFC 317 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., June 28, 2025) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, former Featherweight champion,Ilia Topuria, sets his sights on two-division glory when he takes on former Lightweight kingpin, Charles Oliveira.
We have a fight week series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in “Sin City” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC 317 betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC 317 odds here).
Last week’s recap: We’re been on a roll for three straight weeks! We nailed UFC Baku’s Weekend Lock asRafael Fiziev defeated Iganacio Bahamondes via unanimous decision as a betting underdog.
Let’s keep on, keeping on below:
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
UFC 317’s “Featured” bout is a fantastic fight between No. 1 ranked Flyweight, Brandon Royval, and No. 12 seeded Joshua Van … and it’s going to be electric.
Royval — a former Flyweight title challenger — unexpectedly opened as the betting underdog, but within hours, the odds flipped, briefly making Royval the favorite. The betting line has since flipped back, which is super juicy (and “Raw Dawg” isn’t happy about it).
In case you haven’t realized, I’m taking Royval’s money line, which currently sits at +108.
Here’s the reason(s):
Royval’s level of elite competition dwarfs Van’s. While competition (a.k.a. MMA MATH) isn’t the only factor in breaking down a fight, it’s a big one. Royval dispatched former champ Brandon Moreno on short notice last year and took out then-undefeated Tatsuro Taira.
Meanwhile, Van’s top win is his recent victory over Bruno Silva.
Both fighters are high-pressure fighters, but don’t necessarily have the power to one-punch stop each other, so expect a competitive scrap. However, I believe this is just too much, too soon for Van.
The only way Royval has been defeated in UFC was Pantoja taking him down and submitting him, or in their rematch, Pantoja dominated him on the ground (Royval hurt his shoulder in his only other UFC loss to Moreno).
With that being said, Van has a 64 percent takedown rate in eight UFC fights, and he rarely looks to take his fights to the ground, which means this bout is going to remain on the feet, where Royval’s criminally underrated striking shines. Historically, Van has a bad habit of just walking forward while absorbing damage as he downloads information on his opponent, but he’s gotten better in his last two fights.
Believe me, I am a big Josh Van guy, having followed him since his Fury FC amateur days. I do think he has the ceiling to hold UFC gold at some point (he’s only 23 years old), but Royval has him beat everywhere and will show it this weekend.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter is agreeing with us:
Joshua Van vs. Brandon Royval
Pick: Royval to Win, +102
Van’s future remains brilliantly bright, but this definitely feels like too much too soon between the rapid turnaround and step-up in competition. No denying which side owns more well-rounded skills.
UFC 317 Stats Comp: pic.twitter.com/cU3JWGqDTQ
— MMA RAX (@MMA_RAX) June 24, 2025
- Brandon Royval To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +650
- Brandon Royval To Win By Submission: +700
- Brandon Royval To Win By Decision: +215
- Draw: +5000
- Joshua Van To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +400
- Joshua Van To Win By Submission: +1600
- Joshua Van To Win By Decision: +150
Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Baku pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.
LIVE! Watch UFC 317 PPV On ESPN+ Here!
CHAMPIONSHIP DOUBLE-DIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., June 28, 2025, with a championship doubleheader headlining UFC 317 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, as part of International Fight Week. In UFC 317’s PPV main event, former Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria, challenges ex-Lightweight titleholder, Charles Oliveira, for Islam Makhachev’s vacated 155-pound title in a high-stakes, five-round showdown. UFC 317’s PPV co-main event features Flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja,defending his 125-pound belt against No. 4-seeded contender, Kai Kara-France, in an electrifying five-round rematch. UFC 317 will also showcase a Lightweight bout between Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano, as well as a short-notice Flyweight clash pitting Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van, and much more! UFC 317’s start time is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 8 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard), and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 317 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 317: “Topuria vs. Oliveira” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
