UFC 323 is happening this weekend (Sat., Dec. 6, 2025) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2, with Dvalishvili looking to make history with four title defenses, of his UFC Bantamweight title, in a calendar year.
Yan will be hoping to spoil that historic effort. Regardless what happens, though, the Russian will not be enjoying a dip with Dvalishvili afterwards.
UFC 323’s co-main event is a UFC Flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van. Van has come out of nowhere this year and might be a good pick for fighter of the year should he unseat the unstoppable looking Pantoja.
Rounding out the rest of the main card is Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira (likely for next dibs at 125 pounds), Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott (likely another retirement fight for the former “champ champ”) and Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov.
UFC 323’s “Prelims” are headlined by Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres. That, plus Terrance McKinney vs. Chris Duncan, are two of the better “Prelim” fights of the year. The undercard also has Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam and Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner. Should be good!
I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 323 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement between Monday and this time of writing (Friday morning).
UFC 323 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker
Merab Dvalishvili has history in his sites at UFC 323. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Merab Dvalishvili (-437 -6.1%) vs. Petr Yan (+329 +20.7%)
Dvalishvili opened at -330 for this fight. He’s opened as bigger favorites before, with -385 against Cory Sandhagen last time out and a -350 when he fought Terrion Ware many moons ago. He’s on track to close at perhaps his shortest odds ever in this fight, which speaks to how amazing he’s looked all year.
On November 22 Dvalisvhili’s line shortened to an incredible -528. Though there has been some money on Yan since, then, tempted in by the +385 odds he had during that time. That’s the longest odds of Yan’s career, by a country mile. He’s never even opened at plus odds for a UFC fight.
The movement on this line suggests the public are continuing to come around on Dvalishvili. Against Sandhagen his line moved a little, but not as much as this. Prior to that Dvalishvili was more often faded by the public. He famously flipped from a favorite to an underdog for his first fight with Sean O’Malley. He also opened with plus odds in his wins over Umar Nurmagomedov, Henry Cejudo and Brad Katona.
He was also the underdog when he first met Yan. He opened at +150 for that fight and closed at around +220.
It’s clearly taken some time for both Vegas and the public to fall in love with “The Machine.” But, it’s obvious now that few can deny he’s the favorite in perhaps every Bantamweight fight you can make for him currently. Have the public joined his team too late, though? If there are any out there still wavering about him, they are likely delighted to see Yan at plus money.
Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van square up ahead of UFC 323.
Alexandre Pantoja (-240 +3.3%) vs. Joshua Van (+192 -13%)
Just like with the previous fight, we saw the most activity on this line on Nov. 23. That’s when Pantoja’s opening line of -270 lengthened to -223. This was because folks were betting on Van, turning his opening +230 to +180.
Since then, the lines have started trending in the opposite direction. However, they haven’t been moving in straight lines. They have been jumping around a lot, suggesting the there is a lot of public interest in both men.
The public backed Pantoja in his last defense, against Kai Kara-France. That’s one of the few times Pantoja has seen a lot of betting support, though. He was actually faded by the public against Kai Asakura, Steve Erceg, Brandon Royval, Brandon Moreno and Alex Perez.
The opposite has been true for Van. His fan-friendly style may have earned him a lot of fans who like to bet. He’s gotten a ton of support lately. He shifted from a -350 favorite against Bruno Silva to a whopping -649 favorite.
The public are really up in the air about this one. Hopefully, that means we have a fun and close fight for the 125-pound belt on Saturday.
Brandon Moreno gets a look at Tatsuro Taira before UFC 323.
Brandon Moreno (+103 +11.3%) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-126 -14.3%)
A lot of fights on this card opened with odds that sharply moved in one direction and then bounced back towards the opening line. That could be because different lines were released that were drastically different or it could be that some betters were camping out waiting for the lines being released and then buying big on what they liked.
For this fight, that meant that Moreno opened at -125 but then, almost immediately, that went up to +105. Then it dropped, almost immediately after that, to -130. Since then it’s been slowly lengthening, giving him the slight plus odds we see today.
This activity meant that Taira, who opened at +105, was -119 and then +110 before trending toward where we are now.
Moreno had public support in his last couple of fights, shifting from -188 to -230 and -150 to -165 before his wins over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi.
Taira was faded slightly against short notice opponent Hyun Sung Park. He opened at -375 and closed at -320. He then made those who bet against him look silly with a first round face crank win.
This fight is a Vegas vs. The Public contest. Vegas picked Moreno and the public have picked Taira. As far as what I’ve seen, while writing this column, Vegas is usually right.
Henry Cejudo will need to battle a big size difference at UFC 323.
Henry Cejudo (+214 +1.3%) vs. Payton Talbott (-270 -2.2%)
The lines for these fight behaved like the ones for Moreno vs. Taira.
Cejudo opened at +210 and that quickly changed to +155. Then it bounced up to +195. There was then a slow climb where the line ended up pretty much where it started.
During that activity Talbott’s opening line of -250 become -180 and then -230.
If that activity was due to early betting on Cejudo, it would suggest that there’s a section of the public who are still not sold on Talbott after his shocking loss to Raoni Barcelos (who since then has made his win there look less shocking). Against Felipe Lima, Talbott opened at +125 (the first plus odds of his UFC career) and the public bet against him, turning that into a +146 line.
If the Talbott boo-birds are right about this fight, then we might see Triple-C walk away from the sport with his first win since 2020.
Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov before UFC 323.
Jan Blachowicz (-133 +4.9%) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+109 -10%)
Just like the previous two fights, this one had that early spike of activity. For this one that looked like Guskov opening at +130 and then immediately switching up to -130. Since then the line has slowly lengthened.
With all the possible money going on Guskov, that meant that Blachowicz’s opening line of -150 hit +110 at one point, before slowly coming down.
Anyone who still believes in Polish Power (like me) would have been thrilled to snag Blachowicz at those plus odds. Right now, it appears the odds will widen a little more before fight time.
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UFC 323 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Manuel Torres will be eyeing a bonus at UFC 323.
Grant Dawson (-225 -3.8%) vs. Manuel Torres (+181 +3.9%)
Dawson opened at -200 and that then shrunk to -260. Again, is this more lines being released or is it big money going on Dawson? Either way, that spike didn’t last long. His line then narrowed to -170 before then trending out to where it is now, close to that -200 opening.
Torres opened at +170 and was a +225 underdog after that big spike in favor of Dawson. This line has been a little all over the place, though. At one point, Torres had odds of -145.
This really reflects my feelings on the fight. I’m caught in two minds on whether we see Dawson drag down and brutalize Torres or whether Torres sparks him out like King Green did. It’s gonna be fun finding out.
Will we see Chris Duncan’s guillotine at UFC 323? Getty Images
Terrance McKinney (+121 -4.1%) v. Chris Duncan (-148 +0.5%)
And again … another pair of lines that got big spikes/dips almost as soon as they were released. This time that means that Duncan, who opened at -150, was quickly -200. And McKinney, who opened at +120, was quickly +170. Since then both these lines have steadily trended back toward where they opened.
I would have loved to get McKinney at +170! That being said, he has lost the last two fights where he opened as the underdog (against Esteban Ribovics and Nazim Sadykhov — both by stoppage).
The Fighting Nerds will be presented at UFC 323.
Maycee Barber (-195 -15.1%) vs. Karine Silva (+160 to +17.3%)
I hate to keep repeating myself, but here’s another set of lines that shifted immediately after opening. This time Barber had her opening line go from -135 to -170. It’s continued to grow in that direction, though. All the examples before this had more volatility than that, with betters jumping on the new odds to bring them back in line with the opening odds. This time, though, people have just decided to keep betting Barber despite the odds getting shorter.
That’s a lot of faith for someone who has been out so long.
Fares Ziam vs. Nazim Sadykhov is the under-the-radar match-up of the night at UFC 323.
Nazim Sadykhov (+112 +0.9%) vs. Fares Ziam (-137 -2.3%)
Sadykhov’s opening line of +110 jumped to +165, then fell to +150. On Nov. 23, the line started to trend back toward the opening line. This all had Ziam go from the -130 favorite to a -190 favorite.
Vegas has been very wrong on Ziam recently. He opened at +200 before beating Mike Davis and was +105 before he wiped out Matt Frevola. The public supported him on both those nights, though.
UFC 323 Early “Prelims”
Brunno Ferreira gets a big opportunity at UFC 323.
Marvin Vettori (-115 -2.1%) vs. Brunno Ferreira (-106 +1.8%)
The early line shift favored Vettori here, with his opening odds of -110 shortening to -120. As we’ve seen with so many other lines on this card, his line then started moving towards where it started. During that early activity Ferreira was available at +100.
The public faded Ferreira in his last two fights. They were right to do that when he lost to Abus Magomedov, but were wrong when he stopped Armen Petrosyan.
Edson Barboza meets the returning Jalin Turner at UFC 323. Getty Images
Edson Barboza (+246 +10.4%) vs. Jalin Turner (-313 -6.1%)
Baboza opened at +210, the longest odds of his long UFC career. That was music to the ears of some betters, though. They jumped on that an, on Nov. 23, Barboza’s line dipped to +187. Since then it’s been slowly rising, though.
Turner opened at -250. His odds have been as long as -225 over the past week, but he is now trending into big favorite territory against the veteran fan favorite.
The popular Barboza saw some support in his last fight, seeing his -150 line close at around -110. He was then well beat by Drakkar Klose.
Ibo Aslan is the underdog at UFC 323.
Iwo Baraniewski (-196 -10.4%) vs. Ibo Aslan (+160 +11.5%)
Aslan opened at +130, but that immediately changed to +105. He then rose as high as +166 before coming down to where we are now. The newcomer Baraniewski opened at -150 and has been as short as -206.
Antonio Trocoli is the biggest underdog on the card at UFC 323.
Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1313 -4.5%) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+765 +24.9%)
Abdul-Malik is no stranger to being a massive favorite in UFC. He opened at -800 here and people are still betting on him (maybe in lots of parlays). That’s shortened his line into shortest ever territory at -1313. This all means Trocoli has gone from +550 to +765. Buyer beware on the Brazilian, though. He’s looked awful thus far in the Octagon.
Muhammad Naimov is being faded at UFC 323.
Muhammad Naimov (+209 +25.6%) vs. Mairon Santos (-262 -20.6%)
This fight saw an early drastic change in the lines, like so many match-ups on this card. But, there was no rebound or course correction here. The lines just stayed. Naimov opened at +130 and Santos opened at -150. But, as you can see, the public thinks that’s far too close and that the recent TUF winner deserves to be a bigger favorite.
Petr Yan’s line is one of the more volatile ones at UFC 323.
UFC 323 Biggest Line Movements
TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 321:
- Muhammad Naimov: From +130 underdog to a +209 underdog (-25.6%) (A)
- Antonio Trocoli: From +550 underdog to a +765 underdog (+24.9%) (A)
- Petr Yan: From +240 underdog to +329 underdog (+20.7%) (A)
- Mairon Santos: From -150 favorite to a -262 favorite (-20.6%) (E)
- Karine Silva: From +115 underdog to a +160 underdog (-17.3%) (A)
Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.
A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 7-45.
B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 14-10.
C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 3-8.
D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-5.
E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 3-3.
F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 2-0.
Merab Dvalishvili has history in his sights at UFC 393.
UFC 323 Best Underdogs Bets
I think both Terrance McKinney and Manuel Torres are worth a look here. They are two of the most exciting fighters on the card and both deliver “Wow” moments every time they fight. Getting plus money on them against tough guys, who aren’t as good at striking as them, is a risk I’m willing to take. I also like getting plus money on Brandon Moreno. I think he’s just too well-rounded for Tatsuro Taira.
Enough about me, though. What do you think? Tell me your favorite dogs on this card.
BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE REMATCH! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Dec. 6, 2025, with an explosive (and final) ESPN+-streamed UFC 323 fight card. In UFC 323’s main event, relentless Georgian Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, defends his belt against Russian striking phenom and former 135-pound roost-ruler, Petr Yan, in a high-stakes rematch that could reshape the 135-pound division. In UFC 323’s co-headliner, Brazilian Flyweight kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, battles rising challenger, Joshua Van, for the 125-pound crown in a clash blending elite grappling and knockout power. All that and SO MUCH MORE!!!
