UFC 322 takes place this weekend (Sat., Nov. 15, 2025) at Madison Square Garden in the city so nice they named it twice, New York, NY. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev for the UFC Welterweight title.
Despite Makhachev moving up in weight, he still had a tough cut, apparently.
UFC 322’s co-main event is Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili for the UFC flyweight title. Zhang, like Makhachev, is hoping to join the champ champ club. Shevchenko will want to prove that she’s capable of both cleaning out Flyweight and beating the best Strawweight we’ve ever seen.
Rounding out this main card are a pair of top Welterweight clashes (Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales and Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates) and a Lightweight contest could have some future implications in the 155 lbs. title picture (Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint Denis).
UFC 322’s “Prelims” are headlined by Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira. There’s also Angela Hill vs. Fatima Kline, Chepe Mariscal vs. Pat Sabatini and Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues.
I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 322 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement between Monday and this time of writing (Friday morning).
UFC 322 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker
UFC 322 main event fighters Jack Della Maddalena and Islam Makhachev.
Jack Della Maddalena (+229 -14%) vs. Islam Makhachev (-289 +6.4%)
Della Maddalena has the longest odds of his UFC career this weekend. He’s more than used to being an underdog, though. The undefeated (in UFC) Welterweight champ opened at +176 versus Belal Muhammad, +105 versus Gilbert Burns, +136 versus Kevin Holland and +130 versus Ramazan Emeev.
The public backed him in all those fights, though. He closed with minus odds in all but the Muhammad fight. So, for much of his career, Vegas has been thinking one thing about JDM and the public have been thinking something different. And the public have been right.
The public are again backing Della Maddalena here. Their bets have taken his line from +275 to +229, at this time of writing. On August 29 a lot of money came in on the Aussie, making his line drop all the way to +203. Over the next few days it would sink as low +191 before starting to creep up to where it is now.
This action has seen Makhachev, who opened at -385, shorten to -246 before creeping out to where he is right now. He’s on track to close at -275. That will be the longest odds he’s had since his second fight with Alexander Volkanovski.
The public generally back Makhachev, pushing his favorite lines out into shorter territory. The public, as noted, aren’t totally feeling him this time around. The doubt is partly down to the mystery around his performance at a higher weight and also partly because he’s up against a very tough (and popular) fighter. There may also be some Australian dollars coming in and skewing these lines.
If Vegas is right, then we’re going to crown a new two division champ on Saturday. If the public (and most Aussies) are right, Bruce Buffer will be yelling “AND STILL!!!”
UFC 322 co-main event fighters Velntina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili.
Valentina Shevchenko (-130 -42.9%) vs. Zhang Weili (+110 +28.3%)
Shevchenko opened at +148 for this fight, with Zhang at -195. But we have had a flip! The money has come in on ‘Bullet’ and she now has minus odds, while Zhang has marginally plus odds. If this holds this will be the first time, ever, in Zhang’s UFC career that she closes with plus odds.
This is the first time Shevchenko has opened with plus odds since she fought Holly Holm in 2016. She opened and closed with negative odds in both fights with Amanda Nunes. Those are her only losses prior to the shock upset she suffered against Alexa Grasso (as a -600 favorite).
The public support for Shevchenko is contrary to what we saw last time out, when her opening line of -107 against Manon Fiorot closed at +120. Shevchenko also opened at -107 for her trilogy fight with Alexa Grasso. She closed at +110 for that fight.
So it seems that Shevchenko was a popular candidate to fade lately. But now, for whatever reason, she is being favored to win in a big way. This is a more extreme version of what we see going on with the main event. Both these movements might suggest that a lot of fans believe in the power of weigh classes and that it’s going to be tough nights for the challengers on Saturday.
Sean Brady and Michael Morales want to jump the Welterweight line at UFC 322.
Sean Brady (-140 -9.1%) vs. Michael Morales (+115 +9.2%)
There’s not been a ton of movement here. Brady opened at -105 and the public are into that, pushing his odds a little shorter. That’s good news if you like Morales in this match-up. He opened at -105, but the return is getting better on him by the second. He’s projected to close somewhere around +120.
This is the first time the undefeated Morales has had plus odds since he fought Trevin Giles in 2022. Since then he’s had some very short odds, including -600 against Adam Fugitt and -850 against Neil Magny.
Brady was faded, slightly, in his big fight with Leon Edwards. The public backed him, big, against Gilbert Burns’, though — both fights he ended up dominating. If the public are right about him here, then he could next man up for the winner of Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev.
Carlos Prates will look for another stunning KO at UFC 322.
Leon Edwards (+146 -1.6%) vs. Carlos Prates (-180 +1.5%)
There’s been some interesting movement on this line. Prates opened as the -188 favorite. That started shortening immediately, though. Then, on November 9, his ling shifted sharply to -213. It’s crept up since then and now it sits as a little longer than his opening odds. The zig-zag nature of the line could speak to there being a lot of interest in this fight and big bets coming in on either outcome.
Edwards opened at +150. On November 9 his line jumped up to +172. The public were right to fade Edwards in both of his last appearances. In his title losing fight to Belal Muhammad he opened at -298, but closed at -250 (some smart money came in there).
Beneil Dariush came in heavy for UFC 322.
Beneil Dariush (+157 – 22.6%) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-193 +8.3%)
Dariush opened at +215, but they have come in a little to +150 with a decent portion of the public thinking he’s got what it takes to beat Saint Denis. If you like Dariush, though, hold off on that bet. His weigh-in miss today might trigger betting on Saint Denis and that could send Dariush’s line towards +200.
On the flip side, if you like Saint Denis, get him now. If people start fading Dariush because of the weight miss, then BSD’s odds are going to get much shorter.
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UFC 322 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Bo Nickal is looking to rebound at UFC 322.
Bo Nickal (-229 -13.1%) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (+184 +15.5%)
Nickal opened at -160 for this fight. And it seems that the public have totally forgiven him for his big loss to Reinier de Ridder. They are backing him to beat Vieira here. That’s made Vieira’s line grow from +140 to +185. It could close at +200.
Nickal is a betting darling, though. On November 1, his future odds to beat Khamzat Chimaev (a fight which is never going to happen) was just +170. Against De Ridder he opened at -205, but closed at -333.
Nickal’s lines have shortened even when the line is so short already that it makes no sense to bet, unless you are putting down a crazy amount of units. Against Paul Craig he opened at -910, but there was still enough interest for him to close at around -1200. Same thing happened in his Cody Brundage fight where he went from -110o to -1500.
Seems like there are folks out there who see Nickal as a very safe bet and are willing to invest in that. For this fight his odds shortened immediately after they were released. They fell from -160 to -205 in just 24 hours, as if some were camping out waiting to get in on Nickal before the line shortened.
We got RoboCop at UFC 322, too.
Roman Kopylov (+153 +17.4%) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-187 -15.7%)
Vegas had this as a close fight with Kopylov at +109 and Rodrigues at -129. The public, as you can see, are RoboCop fans, though. Rodrigues has gone from a slight favorite to a moderate favorite. For what it’s worth, I love Rodrigues in this match-up and was surprised to see the opening lines so tight.
The pubic are backing Rodrigues this weekend despite what happened in his fight with Jared Cannonier. Vegas had him at +110 in that fight, but the public bet him down to -225 (and pushed Cannonier to +210). Cannonier then put a whopping on Rodrigues, proving Vegas right.
If Vegas is right again, then this is a much closer fight than the public (and I) think it will be.
The ever popular Tracy Cortez stars on the UFC 322 prelims. Getty Images for Paramount+
Erin Blanchfield (-260 -4.4%) vs. Tracy Cortez (+208 +5.8%)
Cortez opened at +190 for this fight. Then, on October 3, money came in on her and her line shortened to +140. That in turn, may have triggered betting on Blanchfield. Her line rose to -170 when that happened and it seems that was very attractive to a lot of folks. Betting on Blanchfield brought her line back to where it started and then some.
Cortez had a very sharp plummet in her line in her last fight, too. She opened at -185 against Araujo and in the first week that went down to -229. She’s an extremely popular figure, but I don’t think her popularity is the kind that translates to betting patterns.
Malcolm Wellmaker gets a short notice opponent at UFC 322.
Malcolm Wellmaker (-548 +4.8%) vs. Ethyn Ewing (+400 -51.3%)
Wellmaker has seen two opponents fall out of this match before Ewing stepped in this week. Interestingly, Vegas slapped -800 odds on Wellmaker when the new match-up was confirmed. But Ewing has seen a ton of bets on him. He’s gone from +575 to +400.
It seems a lot of people aren’t sold on Wellmaker. That’s not me, though. I’m with Vegas. I think he smokes the newcomer. And, next, year I think we’re going to see Wellmaker getting some big fights.
Gerald Meerschaert needs a win at UFC 322.
Kyle Daukaus (-479 -14.6%) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+375 +30.1%)
Poor Meerschaert. He opened at +220, but that’s now +375. The public seem to mostly agree that he’s going to lose his fourth straight fight on Saturday. And they believe this despite the spotty record of Daukaus, who just got back to UFC after a few years on the regional scene.
Daukaus opened at -260, but now he’s one of the biggest favorites on the card.
Fatima Kline looks to keep climbing at UFC 322.
Angela Hill (+379 -25.3%) vs. Fatima Kline (-520 +4.1%)
Hill opened at +500 odds! That’s the longest opening odds of her career, by far. Second to that is when she was +300 to open against Lupita Godinez. She would go on to win that Godinez fight. It seems like plenty of folks think she will win this one, too. Lots of you out there were tempted by +500 on the crafty vet and that means she’s now under +400.
The public have been on the money with Kline so far. She was backed, big, against Melissa Martinez and Victoria Dudakova (both of whom she finished). And she was faded, correctly, in her debut opposite Jasmine Jasudavicius.
She’s faded here again. Will the public be right again and will a 41 year-old Hill prove she’s still got what it takes?
Sabatini vs. Mariscal is my sleeper pick for Fight of the Night.
Pat Sabatini (-134 -54.6%) vs. Chepe Mariscal (+110 +28.6%)
There’s been a massive shift in these lins. Sabatini opened at +170, but as you can see he’s now -134. Most of that action happened right after the line came out, with him dropping immediately to +115. There’s been a stream of steady action on his line. I don’t want to be a fearmongerer, but is that because someone knows something we don’t?
Mariscal opened at -200 and now he’s +110 and rising. I really like Mariscal in this fight, just like Vegas did. Hopefully I’m not going to be the sucker in this scenario.
Baisangur Susurkaev, shades and all, is one of the biggest favorites at UFC 322.
Baisangur Susurkaev (-965 -5.8%) vs. Eric McConico (+619 +23.5%)
Susurkaev opened at -600, but the public think he’s going to steam-roll McConico. They were right about him in his debut. He opened at -850 for that fight, against Eric Nolan on four days notice, but closed at -900. He won by first round submission.
Viacheslav Borschev is a late addition to UFC 322.
Viacheslav Borshchev (+138 +25.7%) vs. Matheus Camilo (-163 -31.6%)
The odds on this one have flipped, wildly. Slava Klaus opened as the -130 favorite, but he’s now the underdog. That’s despite his opponent not being a UFC proven talent. Strange.
Pat Sabatini has seen a lot of action on his betting line at UFC 322.
UFC 322 Biggest Line Movements
TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 321:
- Pat Sabatini: From +170 underdog to -118 favorite (-50.5%) (B)
- Valentina Shevchenko: From +148 underdog to a -140 favorite (-43.6%) (B)
- Ethyn Ewing: From -+575 underdog to a +346 underdog (-51.3%) (B)
- Matheus Camilo: From -110 favorite to a -168 favorite (-31.6%) (E)
- Gerald Meerschaert: From +220 underdog to a +367 underdog (-32.3%) (A)
Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.
A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 7-44.
B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 12-10.
C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 2-8.
D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-5.
E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-3.
F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 2-0.
I think the public are wrong on Chepe Mariscal’s chances at UFC 322.
UFC 322 Best Underdogs Bets
I’m worried about the line shift, given recent events, but I’m with Vegas in thinking Chepe Mariscal beats Pat Sabatini. I think that’s a great fight and could be really close, but I love Marsical’s motor and aggressiveness and I think that will unsettle Sabatini. I also like Rodolfo Vieira’s chances of beating Bo Nickal, if he sticks to striking and uses his BJJ for defense. If he chases takedowns, like he did against Andre Petroski I think he’s doomed. I also like Viacheslav Borshchev, since I am not sold on anything to do with Matheus Camilo.
Enough about me, though, which underdogs do you like the most? Tell me in the comments below.
WELTERWEIGHT SUPER FIGHT! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Madison Square Garden in New York, N.Y., on Sat., Nov. 15, 2025, with a stacked ESPN+-streamed UFC 322 fight card. In UFC 322’s main event, dominant Russian Lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, aims for historic “double-champ” status by challenging Australian knockout specialist and reigning Welterweight kingpin, Jack Della Maddalena, in an explosive title bout that could redefine the 170-pound division. In UFC 322’s co-headliner, women’s Flyweight queenpin, Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko, defends her throne against Strawweight powerhouse, Zhang Weili, who’s also moving up for a shot at two-division glory in a “Champion vs. Champion” showdown packed with elite striking and grappling. All that and SO MUCH MORE!!!
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