Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight sluggers Rafael Fiziev vs.Ignacio Bahamondes will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 21, 2025) inside Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan for UFC Baku.
Fiziev finds himself riding a three-fight losing streak in unfortunate circumstances. Two back-and-forth wars against Justin Gaethje — one on short-notice! — both went against him, and those decision defeats sandwich a knee injury loss to Mateusz Gamrot. Difficult circumstances and excellent opposition aside, Fiziev wants back in the win column badly.
Bahamondes, conversely, is riding a nice wave of momentum into this high-profile opportunity. The Chilean prospect has won three straight fights over quality opposition and scored three-first-round finishes in the process. Still just 27 years of age, Bahamondes feels primed to accomplish big things at 155 pounds.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
Fiziev vs. Bahamondes Betting Odds
- Rafael Fiziev victory: -125
- Rafael Fiziev via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
- Rafael Fiziev via submission: +2000
- Rafael Fiziev via decision: +275
- Ignacio Bahamondes victory: +105
- Ignacio Bahamondes via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Ignacio Bahamondes via submission: +800
- Ignacio Bahamondes via decision: +180
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Fiziev Wins
Fiziev is a dangerous Muay Thai specialist with real explosion behind his offense. Whether it’s his kicks, combinations, or counter punches, Fiziev packs an absolute wallop and can floor his foe in an instant.
Though certainly a gifted technician in his own right, Bahamondes’ great strengths are his reach and volume. It’s hard to deal with a lanky, accurate striker who is putting out numbers. When opponents do escape the early goings, he tends to win by throwing a lot more strikes.
As the lower volume fighter, Fiziev has to make his shots count. The silver lining to Bahamondes’ approach is that there are opportunities. He throws so much that a counter will be there. Fiziev can use his tight defense to gain reads on Bahamondes and time him with heavier shots, which should go a long way in slowing the output of his younger opponent.
I’d also like to see Fiziev really focus on countering kicks. Checking/blocking/slipping kicks and scoring in return in Muay Thai 101, and it could be a really helpful tactic in neutralizing Bahamondes’ reach.
Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images
How Bahamondes Wins
Bahamondes has a lot of physical gifts on his side. Aside from the obvious height and reach, Bahamondes has a deep gas tank, natural power, and a rock-solid chin on his side. He’s also tough to hold down, meaning he can often force his opposition into scrappy kickboxing matches.
Despite his youth, Bahamondes has a been a pro for nearly a decade.
The reach advantage will be key here, but that doesn’t mean imposing it on Fiziev will be easy. As mentioned, Fiziev’s defense is generally quite good, and his counters are sharp. It’s not going to be as easy as pumping out 1-2s and round kicks.
Bahamondes has to feint often to dull the timing of Fiziev’s counters. Based on the Gaethje fights, a focus on establishing the jab could really pay off. Fiziev’s head movement tends to be more reactive than proactive, meaning he’s using energy and big movements to slip shots. If Bahamondes can get his head moving with the jab, he’ll be able to slow Fiziev down and start timing his heavier shots.
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Fiziev vs. Bahamondes Prediction
I still believe Fiziev has something to offer the upper end of the 155-pound division.
The Russian striker still looked sharp in his most recent appearance, taking the first frame off Gaethje with his usual explosiveness and precision. That’s a good sign after his knee injury! His cardio may not have held up, but the short-notice circumstance helps explain that issue. On a full camp, Fiziev has historically been able to hold his own late in fights.
The size disadvantage is definitely a concern, but Fiziev has never been the biggest Lightweight. He should have the power and speed to make up for a bit of length, scoring enough cracking connections to impress the judges and return to the win column.
Prediction: Fiziev via decision
LIVE! Stream UFC Baku On ESPN+
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CROSSROADS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) crashes Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sat., June 21, 2025, with UFC Baku. Former 205-pound champion, Jamahal Hill, collides with veteran “War Horse,” Khalil Rountree Jr., in a blistering main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Baku’s co-main event, No. 11-ranked lightweight contender, Rafael Fiziev, locks horns with 155-pound striking sensation, Ignacio Bahamondes, with a spot in the lightweight Top 10 up for grabs.
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Baku fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, before the ABC main card start time at 3 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Baku: “Hill vs. Rountree” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
